Dual Pressure Causes Iron Ore Prices to Continue Slight Decline [SMM Commentary]

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Today, DCE iron ore futures continued to fluctuate downward. The most-traded I2505 contract finally closed at 771 yuan/mt, down 1.34% for the day. Traders remained cautious, with some halting offers; steel mills showed increased wait-and-see sentiment, with fewer inquiries; and the market transaction atmosphere was sluggish. In Shandong, the mainstream transaction prices of PB fines were around 775 yuan/mt, down 5 yuan/mt from yesterday; in Tangshan, the transaction prices of PB fines were around 785 yuan/mt, also down 5 yuan/mt from yesterday. A key domestic meeting held today confirmed that crude steel production will continue to be controlled through 2025, further validating previous rumors. Pessimism intensified, compounded by the US imposing additional tariffs on China again. Under the dual pressure, ore prices continued to pull back to new lows. Attention is on tomorrow's SMM steel inventory data; if inventory starts to decline, the increase in pig iron production may accelerate, providing some support for ore prices.